2016 will be the year there are many notable events. Agreement on trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is likely to be the 12-Member State Congress passed. The us presidential election, will the summer Olympics takes place in Brazil, China made a new 5-year plan. The biggest event of all is probably the British referendum on whether to continue as members of the European Union (EU) or not.
The world economy next year are forecast stronger than the year 2015, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the economists in the Bloomberg survey. However, "the ability to return to a strong growth period and the synchronized worldwide is still difficult," IMF said in the report the prospects of recovery. The Fund forecasts next year, global GDP growth of 3.6%, higher than the 3.1% this year and the equivalent of 3.5% on average the period 1980-2014.
Adair Turner-former head of the financial supervisory agency (FSA) said that next year is generally fine. However, he was more pessimistic than the General Outlook. Turner worried there will be a currency war submarines between Europe and Japan, when this economy trying to devalue the local currency to boost exports and employment in the country, from which the bad impact to the growth of the commercial partners.
The Japanese economy is increasingly going down. Photo: Bloomberg
The prospect for next year is that China will continue down the slope. The u.s. economy continues to lead the group in wealthy countries. In addition, when world demand remains weak, interest rates, oil prices and other commodities are likely to remain at a low level. Leaders of the Central Bank of the United States, Europe and Japan will be the focus of attention next year.
The most important variables in 2016 is China. The country's growth was down to under 7% in the third quarter of this year, for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008. Many developing countries are dependent on trade with China, such as Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Vietnam.
However, China needs the world no longer increase with speed as before. And the country also do not need to upgrade the infrastructure in an urgent manner. As well as his predecessor, President of China-XI Jinping are very difficult period, when to drive the direction of economic growth based on consumption.
IMF forecasts next year, the world's second-largest economy will show growth of 6.3%, lower than the 6.8 percent this year. This number may be acceptable, although still below the targeted the leaders of this country.
Despite this, some people are still quite pessimistic, as Willem Buiter-Global Chief Economist at Citigroup. "We believe that China has a high risk of a hard landing," due to excess capacity and debt. When Brazil and Russia have fallen into recession, China's downturn will drag far behind other emerging markets, Bruiter warned. The majority of rich countries less dependent on exports to China. Thus, they will "not be a recession but also grew more slowly".
The cheap oil price is also one of the factors was concern next year. The low price makes the affected exporting countries, such as Russia or the members of the Organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC). However, it helps the importing developing countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Cheap oil also helps reduce fuel costs in many countries.
World oil prices have fallen two-thirds from the middle of last year. Photo: Bloomberg
However, with the macro-economic expert, the oil price is even harder to guess than the Chinese economy, because it depends on so many factors, from the politics of OPEC to conflict in the Middle East. Recently, oil prices are forecast to be able to down 15 USD a barrel next year due to excess supply and world oil spot dwindle.
It is thought that cheap would reduce production, to a certain extent cause the supply shortage and push prices up again. Emad Mostaque-strategist at Eclectic Strategy for each barrel of oil that can be up to USD 100 or even 130 USD 2017. Until then, price if the increase also will only move very slightly.
With the United States, 2015 is a year full of good signals about the economy. So, the middle of this month, the u.s. Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates the first time in nearly a decade. However, the wage of Americans yet to increase significantly. According to Sentier Research, earnings per average household in this month 9 1.7% lower than in January 2000 (after adjusting for inflation). Next year, this figures are forecast to rise sharply. PwC's survey feedback quarter shows the private companies plan to raise the salary of 3.1% this year.
Besides that, because of inflation here was still poorly away from target, interest rates are forecast to rise not. "The recession was born from the excess. We are still in the stage of recovery rather than growth, "Liz Ann Sonders-strategist at Charles Schwab.
European and Japanese economy next year are forecast to weaker. Not as slow growth in America that make since 2009, both on the economy are all going back. The European Central Bank (ECB) might reduce interest rates further and the Central Bank of Japan was also willing to buy more bonds to lower long-term interest rates.
The financial crisis in Greece has led towards the British because keeping the local currency during the past several years. In 2016, they will hold a referendum on whether to leave the EU or not. Russ Koesterich-global strategist at BlackRock for that if you want people to go, "this will severely affected business confidence in Europe".
Migration crisis is new headaches with the EU. But at least in Germany, it could promote growth in the short term, Malte Rieth-Director of the Division for economic forecasting at the German Economic Research Institute said. The Agency estimated when the Government subsidize these people, and they used that money to spend on goods and services, the GDP will rise by 0.2%-0.1 in Germany.
2016 will also be the year uncomfortably with Brazil and Russia. Brazil is experiencing a political crisis and affected by oil prices. Russia also are subject to a range of economic sanctions and the deficit budget revenues from falling oil prices. IMF forecasts both this economy continues to go down in 2016, but the speed will slow down. Also with other emerging countries, the Agency said that the growth in India will pass China up 7.5%, 2.8% and Mexico is South Africa is 1.3%.