According to the Vietnam food Association (VFA), the rice export activities beginning in 2016 than favorable beginning in 2015. Commercial contracts and contracts of focus from 2015 switch over 1.3 million tonnes, import demand from major markets and the tradition of Vietnam.
Groundbreaking call upstream
Can say, 2015 is the year of exports of agricultural products (except personal things and pepper), due to falling export prices, is fiercely competitive; rice, own difficulties as more piled. The export Figure 6.58 million tons of rice last year 2015 is considered quite unexpectedly, by the equally pessimistic Outlook when the market. The number and value of rice exports are declining over the same period, lasted continuously until the middle of October 2015.
Press reply, he asked potential energy, Chairman of the Vietnam food Association (VFA), recognized as the world rice market in 2015 is hard, export prices down too low! Rice export activities in 2015 has two stages. From the beginning of the year to before September 2015, rice export market is bleak, in large inventories. The volume of rice stored in warehouse filled also temporarily purchase business (DN). Compared with world market prices, the purchase price to temporarily store back higher. So that the target of rice export had to adjust down. The ENTERPRISE business and food exports in General, including the South food General company (Vinafood 2), three very difficult years when world rice market than demand. Thailand-Vietnam Rice's main opponent, the volume of rice stock is still huge, the Government must find ways to sell, leading to more competitive pressure stress. The majority of food export ENTERPRISES are small and medium ENTERPRISES, except Vinafood 1 (Northern food Corporation) and Vinafood 2, so when the market fluctuates, the profit margins are very low income.
If the last month of the year 2015 no two contracts to export rice to the Philippines and Indonesia, will have many COMPANIES fall into a loss situation. Two-level focus of government contracts (G to G) timely appearance as "the buoy" rescue. But when there are 750,000 tons of rice contracts provide for the Philippines, which supply 450,000 tons of Vietnam and Thailand 300,000 tons of rice in the domestic market, still deposited by the Philippines just delivered 250,000 tons by the end of 2015. Until Vinafood 2 signed a contract to export 1 million tons of rice to go to Indonesia, new markets move to price increases, and then raise prices too quickly. Some 1.4 million tons of rice in inventory of the DN, Vinafood 2 then to 400,000 tons, thus helping resolve several difficult stretches before and help COMPANIES export rice "recovery".
Increased competition for rice in Vietnam
According to VFA, the export of rice beginning in 2016 to meet many more advantages in comparison with the beginning of the year 2015. The rice inventory in 2015 is no longer as much as the previous year-average 700,000 tons to 300,000 tons of rice to the pillow top. Commercial contracts and contracts of focus from 2015 switch over 1.3 million tons and import demand from major markets coming soon. Consequently, many possibilities winter-spring 2015-2016 is not buying as temporary winter-spring 2014-2015. VFA also forecast, rice export markets to the end of quarter 2-2016 is quite good, because the major import countries like the Philippines, China, Indonesia and Malaysia will soon sign a contract to import rice to stabilize the food supply in the country, and dealing with the impact of drought caused by El Nino caused. According to the Reuters news agency, NFA's food agency of the Philippines just announced 400,000 tons of rice imports in Q2-2016 and 800,000 tons more after that, a total of over 1.2 million tons of rice in 2016. The country is still the potential market of Vietnam rice seeds for many years to come, especially in China. Although the Philippines and Indonesia has always provided free food, but natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods and El Niño phenomenon particularly extended affected most heavily in the past 60 years.
What concerned the domestic rice price is currently higher than that world rice prices, for the same type 5% rice, Vietnam rice higher than at Thai and Indian rice 10-20USD per ton, higher than that of rice in Pakistan about 60USD per ton. This makes the REAL apprehension in signing commercial contracts. Although rice price in the country was down 5-10USD per ton, but still high. So, if this situation lasts, the commercial contract will be difficult and this is exactly the problem to solve in Q2-2016 of the VFA.
Mr. Nguyen Van TIEN, General Manager of Angimex (An Giang Province), identification of aromatic rice and white rice senior continued growth by 2015 is a positive signal and as a condition to build the brand, as advocates of the VFA. There are many factors that can help market the world rice prices in 2016, for the period last year, as the negative impact the phenomenon El Nino to food production, global inventories amount reduced just as the period of the 2007-2008 crisis, food shortages. But the problem is the quality control and plant protection drugs residues, is required to have the solution. This is the biggest challenge, when TPP agreement in effect that chemical residue problem not resolved, rice Vietnam will lose the advantage to the difficult markets in the TPP, and even at home.
Currently, commercial contracts and contracts to focus the year 2015 switch more than 1.3 million tons. While rice output of goods this winter-spring of about 4.3 million tons, and about 3 million tons still waiting to sign the contract. According to he asked potential energy, the Chairman of the VFA, the output of the market depends greatly on crop performance.
Source: SAIGON LIBERATION Newspaper